Reading the security numbers

Spending as a share of GDP. NATO's table of 2026 estimates puts Polish defence spending at 4.68% of GDP (an estimated 4.25% in 2025), against 3.17% for the United States and 2.53% for European allies and Canada together. In the same table the three Baltic states report higher shares [1]. These are estimates with a cut-off of 3 July 2026, not outturns, and spending is not the same as readiness.

Deterrence lowers a risk. NATO now reports nine battlegroups along its eastern flank, from Finland to Bulgaria, and two operations launched in 2025: Eastern Sentry, which keeps vigilance along the eastern flank, and Baltic Sentry, which protects critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic [2]. Collective deterrence lowers the risk; it does not remove it.

Projects have stages. ORP Wicher was launched in August 2026 in Gdynia, a 138.7-metre frigate and the first of three Miecznik-class ships. A launched ship is not yet a ship in service: it is planned to enter service in 2029 and the programme is due to finish in 2032 [3]. Official sources date the ceremony 12 and 13 August, so this course says only August [4]. ICEYE agreed in May 2025 to supply satellites to the Polish Armed Forces [5].

Perception is not an assessment. In an April 2026 survey by CBOS 97% described their own neighbourhood or village as safe and peaceful and 89% said people live safely in Poland; the share afraid of becoming a crime victim fell five points, to 36% [6]. The Global Peace Index 2026 ranks Poland 22nd, up 23 places from 45th a year earlier [7]. The first is perceived safety, the second a composite index; neither is a military assessment.

Sources

1. NATO: Defence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026), table 3, https://www.nato.int/content/dam/nato/webready/documents/finance/def-exp-2026-en.pdf (2026 estimates, cut-off 3 July 2026)
2. NATO: Strengthening the eastern flank, September 2026 update, https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/strengthening-natos-eastern-flank (September 2026 update)
3. Ministry of National Defence: Miecznik frigates for the Polish Navy, https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa/miecznik-dla-marynarki-wojennej-rp (Programme schedule to 2032)
4. Ministry of State Assets: Wicher on the Baltic, the largest Polish warship in decades goes afloat, 12 August 2026, https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/wicher-na-baltyku--najwiekszy-od-dziesiecioleci-polski-okret-bojowy-schodzi-na-wode; Ministry of National Defence: Christening ceremony of the future ORP Wicher, 12 August 2026, https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa/uroczystosc-chrztu-przyszlego-orp-wicher (August 2026)
5. ICEYE: Polish Armed Forces satellite agreement, May 2025, https://www.iceye.com/newsroom/press-releases/iceye-to-provide-sar-satellites-for-the-armed-forces-of-poland (May 2025)
6. CBOS: Safety and crime perceptions, May 2026, https://www.cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7206 (April 2026 survey)
7. Institute for Economics and Peace: Global Peace Index 2026, https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Global-Peace-Index-2026-Report.pdf (Global Peace Index 2026)